the accidental anarchists

Just a “grain glitch” in the matrix, nothing to see here.

According to one journalist, they say of the Washington Post: ‘it’s a great paper; you never know which page will have the lead story’. True to form, the current lead headline might appear predictably anodyne: “Democrats balk as Republicans try to use must-pass spending bill to fix tax law“. On examination, the story proves more interesting, even amusing.

Seems the current crop of Republican legislators accidentally passed a tax break which encourages farmers to deal with co-operatives over traditional agri-business, seemingly due to the law being unable to distinguish between gross sales and net income on this occasion. Once agri-business pointed it out, Republicans immediately promised to fix it, but there are signs of resistance from Democrats who are kicking up a stink. That’s the gist of the story. What interests me is the irony, the inept element of it, and the way it’s written. The discourse, perhaps alien to an English reader, is very much of the minutia of House Democrats seizing on an issue purely as part of the game. Pelosi’s words notwithstanding, theres certainly no sense of Democrats seizing the possibility for a national debate about the general benefits of co-ops for organising trade, which i suppose inheres in their self-organising capacity.
And finally the story descends into remarking that the apparently numerous typos and omissions in the new law are par for the course.
So that’s alright then. We can, at least for today, confirm the lead headline in the Post will always leave us with ennui and disappointment after all.

What probably should be the lead story covers leading Republican opposition to Trump, in the form of the perfectly-named Arizona senator Jeff Flake, passionately defending the judiciary, the First Amendment, and describing the Trump administration as “chaos for its own sake, projected onto the world”. Stirring stuff but, as the reporter points out

The question remains: Where do Flake and like-minded Republicans go — to a new party? To permanent political exile? Much depends on whether the Democrats make a foolish choice in 2020, opening up space for a third party. In any event, Flake implicitly (and I think, unintentionally) makes a powerful argument that the first step is the complete demolition of a reckless, soulless party.

Bitcoin Price Predictions

Disclaimer: this post is not financial advice, and the author takes no responsibility for any losses or gains you may experience.

If I’m a bit off my game regarding crypto-currencies at the moment, I’m thinking I should get sharper: things are currently looking very interesting. With the regulatory picture shifting every day, and a general feeling that weak hands have been shaken out by the recent crash/correction. Bitcoin has been enjoying a recovery all week.

Looking at the daily chart 24 hours ago, I was sceptical as to how sustainable the recovery is.

That said, as has been noted elsewhere, bitcoin seems to be holding above $8000 ‘like a boss’. $8000 has always felt like a key level to me, but looking at the picture over the next week I would say $7000 is the figure to watch, and the next 7 days will be critical.

Projecting the crash downwards from the all-time-high, the price could drop down to about $6900 without dropping below a long-term modest but sustainable bullish trend, highlighted in yellow. A price drop much below that, say to $6600 or below, however, looks more significant, confirming the bearish trend. If the price drops to that level over the next 7 days, I would expect bitcoin to see $5000 very soon afterwards, easily collapsing to around $3000 as we head towards spring.

If however there’s a bounce at around $7000 or just below, I’d expect all things being equal a week or so of price consolidation at $8000 or just above, at least until the next major shift in the market.

And there’s always the possibility the current sharp recovery will continue, underlined in purple, which means we could be looking at almost $9000 next week, with a possible rally back up to $11000.

At the time of writing, the recovery has strengthened and is now well above my purple line, as can be seen from this snapshot:

However, with the bearish red line corrected to take account of this, I would say the price still needs to breaks out above about $8800 in the next few days if we want to see $10000 any time soon. If it can’t manage to break above $8800, I expect the price to deflate back down to $7000. Let’s see how where we are this time next week.

Aside

“That the Subjects which are Protestants may have Arms for their Defence suitable to their Conditions and as allowed by Law. ” – English Bill of Rights, 1689

“A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.” US Constitution, 2nd amendment, 1791

Your homework this week is to compare and contrast these statements from English and American statute.

Zbigniew Brzezinski

Always been fascinated by Brzezinski, who has just died; a sort of liberal version of Kissenger. Reading his obit here in the Post, I discover that as well as a shared Polish heritage we share a birthday! Explains a lot…
Anyway, it’s an informative piece but rather glosses over Brzezinski’s role in the Afghan conflict o the 1980s. His power games there, as well as Poland, Iran, China etc, for good or for ill, helped birth the world we live in today. Key figure.

Medicine without frontiers

The Crow word ‘bacheitche’ apparently means ‘good man’. President Obama used it to characterise Joe Medicine Crow, last warrior chief of the Plains Indians, hero of WW2, the ‘first person from his tribe to earn a’ masters degree, anthropologist & historian, and recipient of the Presidential Medal of Freedom.